Who doesn’t like bold predictions? Especially in the heatwave of May, with the Draft now a week away and real football still months away? The main free agents are already signed. We have seen more successful deals than anyone could have anticipated. The lists are taking shape. We can start to think we know things about the 2022 season, right?
More information will certainly be available next week when the schedules are revealed. This is often an important factor, as it’s not just who you play with, but also when you play. But for these purposes, I don’t think it matters much. There are some things I’m starting to believe, or become convinced of, and some hunches I’m willing to play, and what better time than now to share them (and expose myself to ridicule and ridicule in the process!).
So, after much deliberation and consternation, I’m willing to put these 10 bold predictions out into the universe. Feel free to return them to me:
I’m the Russ team. Always has been. It will always be. Guys like this don’t get deals at their best. And make no mistake, he’s still in his prime. This is the best cast he’s had around him in a long time. This is a coach who is going to be the opposite of Pete Carroll and bias everything possible in favor of the passing game. It is time to leave. They have speed. They have big goals. They will have a scheme that has worked wonderfully well in Green Bay and with the LA Rams, among others. I see Denver as a very real factor in a loaded AFC, and Russ will get the cookie from him.
2. David Ojabo will have a monster season… in 2023
I love the Ravens’ Round 2 pick of the Michigan pass-rusher as much as any pick in this draft. He’s a top-10 talent and has natural rushing instincts and moves and a ceiling as high as any pass-rusher in this draft, including the top two picks. He will instantly fit into Baltimore’s evolving scheme under new coordinator Mike Macdonald. He will be the first impact pass-rusher the Ravens have developed and cultivated since Terrell Suggs. But it won’t be this year. At least I imagine it won’t. After his horrific pre-draft injury, and given the Ravens’ massive injury problems in recent years and multiple issues with players returning from surgery, a redshirt year and a monster season a year from now makes sense. for me.
3. Aaron Rodgers will retire after the season
Green Bay will not be the same this season. He keeps losing more and more of his guys. Davante Adams is gone, and his offensive line could look a lot different in 2023. Yeah, walking away from another $60 million guaranteed in 2023 sounds crazy to most of us. But I anticipate a real regression of this group and they will be on the decline and this cat does his thing and revels in it. Would it really be out of character to put the Packers through all this drama the past two offseasons only to hang up in the middle of a new extension? And wouldn’t it be even more quintessential Rodgers if he did it after…
Someone will get desperate. This child will want to play. He should get a chance to play. Sitting out three years is ridiculous and someone will need a quarterback at some point due to injury, even if Jimmy Garoppolo and Baker Mayfield are traded.
5. Lamar Jackson will be on a franchise tag by this time next year
An extension has proven to be elusive and the QB market will continue to change dramatically once Wilson gets his new contract (and probably Kyler Murray too). Jackson will agree to play things out unless the Ravens drastically alter the scope of what they’re willing to do. Neither side will press the issue any time soon. A label will seem unavoidable. And once it arrives, it will only drive the price higher and will only further complicate the ability to do anything in the long run unless someone blinks.
6. Deshaun Watson will play fewer than eight games
No one knows exactly what the NFL will decide here. But I can’t imagine any decision being made until just before the season and I don’t think the NFL is worried about looking too strict. They seemed perfectly fine with Watson in the shadows all of last season and won’t be worried about it this year either, especially after how the Browns tweaked the quarterback’s contract to minimize the financial impact of a suspension. Better to come across as taking these accusations too seriously than not seriously enough, he was paid full salary not to play last year and won’t lose much no matter how long he’s suspended this year. Therefore, the only way to signal intent is with the length of the sentence. I hope it is significant.
7. Browns will eat $12 million from Baker Mayfield’s contract
They have no real choice if they want to get something for him. This will only get messier and uglier the longer it goes on. They have to bite the bullet and eventually they will bite the bullet. I’ve done it before and I’ll do it again and this is a case of addition by subtraction. They will have enough drama with Watson. I can’t get it from the No. 3 QB, too.
8. The Lions will not be a last place
Low bar to clear but finally they are ready to clear it. I love your draft, as it is well documented at this point. He hated the Bears’ draft and, well, basically their entire offseason. Justin Fields is going to take a beating. Detroit is really going to get better. They will play a weak schedule. They are set up to make a profit.
9. The Eagles will be in the NFC title game
I was a fan of them a year ago and told them in October that they will surprise people. They made it to the playoffs. They’re coming up and they’ve had a great offseason. The rest of the conference is largely in regression. I think Jalen Hurts has some of “it” in him. They will have more bite on defense and can play to stay away on offense.
10. The Patriots are in trouble
Mac Jones loses Josh McDaniels (and now has a mystery coordinator) and this franchise adds almost nothing a year after spending big, it won’t do well. A front of seven that collapsed down the stretch a year ago doesn’t look much better to me. The Dolphins and Jets will not be easy to walk next season. A sophomore depression or two would be damning. I have my reservations